Global catastrophes and trends: the next fifty years

1. How (not) to look ahead

2. Fatal discontinuities. Natural catastrophes

Encounters with extraterrestrial objects

Volcanic mega-eruptions and collapses

Influenza pandemics

Violent conflicts

Transformational wars

Terrorist attacks

Imaginable surprises

3. Unfolding trends. Energy transitions

Dominant fuels, enduring prime movers

Solar (nuclear?) civilization

New world order

Europe's place

Japan's decline

Islam's choice

Russia's way

China's rise

The United States' retreat

Place on top

Dominance and decline

Globalization and inequality

4. Environmental change. Global warming and its consequences

Rising temperatures

Ocean's rise, dynamics and composition

Ecosystems and economies

Other global changes

Changing water and nitrogen cycles

Loss of biodiversity and invasive species

Antibiotic resistance

Biosphere's integrity

5. Dealing with risk and uncertainty. Relative fears

Quantifying the odds

Rational attitudes

Acting as risk minimizes

The next 50 years.